Journal Papers
Intensity Effect, Structure Effect and the Mystery of Electricity Consumption in China: Decomposition Analysis Based on 43 Specific Industries
Published：2011-02-06
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Abstract:
The changes in electricity consumption per unit GDP is the decisive factor in causing electricity consumption to deviate from economic growth. This article segments national economy into 43 specific industries, and uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) to decompose the structure and intensity effects on changes in electricity consumption intensity from 2006 to 2009.The results show that:(1) in overall perspective, the structure effect on changes in electricity consumption intensity weighs less than 30%,while the intensity effect plays a leading role, accounting for more than 70%.(2) The absolute values of structure effects across years are all negative, namely industry structure changes play a positive part on the decline of electricity consumption per unit GDP.(3) Segmenting industries to high energy-consuming ones such as: electric power, steel, chemical, nonferrous metal and building materials, the changes in consumption intensity and of the proportion of output value played a dominant role on the change of electricity consumption per unit GDP. Accurate decomposition analysis not only unravels the mysteries of China's electricity consumption, it also gives important inspirations to policies: the adjustment of industrial structure is a slow and gradual process. In the short term, the dominant factors causing energy intensity to decline is the declination of self-consumption intensity in segmented industries. The current focus and main potential in energy saving and emission reduction is to improve the energy consumption efficiency in segmented industries.
Key words:
Electricity Intensity; Structure Effect; Intensity Effect; Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI);
Fund：
The phased results of the “China Energy Economic Research” (2009AC-6), a major project funded by the Central University’s basic scientific research business.
Reference:
Lin, W., Shi, F., & Xie, L. (2011). Intensity Effect, Structure Effect and the Mystery of Electricity Consumption in China: Decomposition Analysis Based on 43 Specific Industries. Statistical Research, 2011(11), pp.77-82. （《强度效应、结构效应与中国电力消费之谜》）
Lin, W., Shi, F., & Xie, L. (2011). Intensity Effect, Structure Effect and the Mystery of Electricity Consumption in China: Decomposition Analysis Based on 43 Specific Industries. Statistical Research, 2011(11), pp.77-82. （《强度效应、结构效应与中国电力消费之谜》）
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