Abstract:
Based on vector auto-regression （VAR） model, this paper takes advantage of Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis techniques to carry out a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the price of Chinese herbal, including herbal cultivation costs, acreage, natural disasters, the residents＇ needs and inflation. The study found that there is Granger causality relationship between inflation and herbal prices, cultivation costs and herbal prices. And in the total variance analysis of Chinese herbal and medicine price index, the largest contribution to it is from its own fluctuations, followed by the cultivation costs and inflation.
Key words:
Price fluctuations; Vector auto-regression model; Granger causality test; Variance decomposition; Impulse response analysis
Reference:
Wang, N., Liu, S., & Yang, G. (2014). Exploration of influencing factors of price of herbal based on VAR model. China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica, 39(20), pp.4070-4073.（《基于向量自回归模型对我国中药材价格波动影响因素的探讨》）
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