主讲人：崔 琦 北京大学现代农学院讲师、博士后
主持人：周晔馨 北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院副教授
时 间：2017年12月5日（星期二）12:00-13:30
地 点：后主楼1710会议室
主讲人介绍：
崔琦，北京大学现代农学院讲师、博士后，毕业于中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所（管理学博士，2016）。研究领域为气候变化、粮食安全、食物消费等，采用研究方法为农业部门均衡模型（CAPSiM）和可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）。近年来主持或参与国家重点研发计划、自科基金重点项目群、国家博后基金等7项重点立项课题研究。迄今在国内外核心期刊发表论文9篇，包括China Economic Review (forthcoming)、Natural Hazard、Chinese Agricultural Economic Review、Journal of Integrative Agriculture等。
内容提要:
Among the climate change-induced threats to coastal regions, sea level rise is considered as the most serious one. Most large and prosperous cities in China are located along coastal regions and are thus likely to suffer huge economic impacts when a sea level rise occurs. The effects on coastal regions can also be transmitted to inland regions through movement of labor and trade, thus affecting regional disparity. To strengthen evidence-based policies of abatement and adaptation, it is essential to assess the economic impacts of sea level rise in addition to the physical impacts already investigated in the literature. Based on data from GIS analysis of flooded areas, this study uses a state-of-the-art technique (TERM-China, a multiregional general equilibrium model of China) to evaluate the economic impacts of sea level rise. The simulation results suggest that if the sea level rise coincides with sudden-onset extreme storm surges, the coastal regions’ GDP loss would reach 11% in 2050, wherein Tianjin, Shanghai, and Jiangsu would have the most severe losses with over a 20% decline in their individual GDP in 2050. At the sectoral level, high capital-intensive sectors have more significant output losses. Our results also indicate that sea level rise could cause more unemployment in developed coastal regions, drive people to other developing inland regions, and even convert some mega-cities into middle-scale cities.
报名方式及注意事项：
1、关注下方创新发展研究院（CIID）公众号，留言“午餐会—姓名—院系”，收到后台报名成功回复即为报名成功；取消订餐请在CIID公众号留言“取消—姓名”。订餐及取消订餐的截止时间均为12月5日上午9时整。
2、因午餐数量有限,非经济与资源管理研究院人员订餐仅限前10名，请留意后台消息提醒，如有不便,敬请谅解。
3、为了保持午餐会的良好气氛，我们将于会前十五分钟开始发放午餐，会前五分钟结束发放。敬请用餐者至少提前五分钟到会，迟到者请会后领取。
4、为了避免浪费，午餐将严格按照订餐名单发放。
欢迎关注公众号报名
创新发展研究院